An ascending triangle formation has driven the total crypto market capitalization toward the $1.2 trillion level. The issue with this seven-week-long setup is the diminishing volatility, which could last until late August. From there, the pattern can break either way, but Tether and futures markets data show bulls lacking enough conviction to catalyze an upside break.
Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView
Investors cautiously await further macroeconomic data on the state of the economy as the United States Federal Reserve (FED) raises interest rates and places its asset purchase program on hold. On Aug. 12, the United Kingdom posted a gross domestic product (GDP) contraction of 0.1% year-over-year. Meanwhile, inflation in the U.K. reached 9.4% in July, the highest figure seen in 40 years.
The Chinese property market has caused the Fitch Ratings credit agency to issue a “special report” on Aug. 7 to quantify the impact of prolonged distress on a potentially weaker economy in China. Analysts expect asset management and smaller construction and steel-producing companies to suffer the most.
In short, risk asset investors are anxiously waiting for the Federal Reserve and Central Banks across the world to signal that the policy of tightening is coming to an end. On the other hand, expansionary policies are more favorable for scarce assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Sentiment improves to neutral after 4 months
The risk-off attitude caused by increased interest rates has instilled a bearish sentiment into cryptocurrency investors since mid-April. As a result, traders have been unwilling to allocate to volatile assets and sought shelter in U.S. Treasuries, even though their returns do not compensate for inflation.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: alternative.me
The Fear and Greed Index hit 6/100 on June 19, near the lowest ever reading for this data-driven sentiment gauge. However, investors moved away from the “extreme fear” reading during August as the indicator held a 30/100 level. On Aug. 11, the metric finally entered a “neutral” area…