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Bitcoin will surge in 2023 — but be careful what you wish for

The Bitcoin (BTC) community is divided about whether the token’s price is going to surge or crash in the year ahead. A majority of analysts and technical indicators suggest it could bottom between $12,000 and $16,000 in the months to come. This correlates with a volatile macroeconomic environment, stock prices, inflation, Federal Reserve data and (at least according to Elon Musk) a possible recession that could last until 2024.

On the other side, influencers, BTC maximalists and a range of other fanatical “shills” maintain its price could skyrocket to $80,000 and beyond.

There is evidence to support both sides. One issue is that they may be looking at different time horizons. There’s a strong case to be made that BTC is likely to drop sharply in the months ahead but potentially rise in mid-to-late 2023.

The case for a 2023 BTC price increase

Bitcoin bull runs historically coincide with the four-year market cycle, which includes accumulation (buying), an uptrend, distribution (selling) and a downtrend. We would generally expect the accumulation part of this process to begin in 2023, though some believe it could be delayed until 2024.

Related: What will the cryptocurrency market look like in 2027? Here are 5 predictions

Nonetheless, we will likely see valuations rise in mid-2023, and there is evidence to support this idea. According to Kevin Svenson, we could witness a bull market begin around April when the 80-week bear market finishes up.

#Bitcoin Average Bear Market Length pic.twitter.com/3in9MsLaK2

— Kevin Svenson (@KevinSvenson_) October 19, 2022

The deflationary nature of Bitcoin, through its “halving” events, also encourages these price increases over time. (Halvings result in the reward for miners being cut in half. The next one is scheduled to occur in April 2024.) Despite market turbulence, Bitcoin’s deflationary nature results in price appreciation for long-term investors.

But, be wary of the hype. Influencers and markets are well aware that greed sells. Predictions that Ether (ETH) will rise by 10 times in 2023 should be viewed with…

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