Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has followed a four-year cycle, with consecutive bull and bear trends occurring in somewhat measurable intervals. A closer look at Bitcoin’s long-term price action reveals that the run-up to the top and bottom of the previous cycles look remarkably similar. What’s more interesting is that the 2020–2021 cycle shows signs of following the same pattern.
Independent market analyst HornHarris found that the period between the bottom-to-top and top-to-bottom has been the same since 2015: 152 weeks and 52 weeks, respectively.
Even in 2013, the bear market lasted 58 weeks, only a six-week difference from the other two cycles.
Bitcoin price chart with timelines of past cycles. Source: Twitter
Another resemblance with the last bottom formation is the similarity between Bitcoin’s current uptrend and the one in 2019, when the primary catalyst was prevalent negative investor sentiment. Bitcoin price gained nearly 350% from the bottom of $3,125, and it didn’t drop below this level moving forward, marking the previous cycle’s bottom.
Four years later, the conditions have changed, but the underlying reason for the latest 30% surge in Bitcoin’s price was still the market expecting lower prices due to macroeconomic headwinds. The lack of positive sentiment and build-up of short positions in the futures market may have allowed buyers to stage a disbelief rally to hunt short-order liquidations and incite FOMO — fear of missing out — among investors who had been sitting on the sidelines.
But not all conditions are the same. Previously, BTC whales — addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC — went on a buying spree as Bitcoin’s price started to bottom out. However, these buyers haven’t participated in the recent rally, raising concerns about its sustainability.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s November 2022 lows of around $15,500 will mark the bottom of the current cycle. It would also mean that a new bullish cycle has begun, and the asset could record a new peak in October 2025.
Number of addresses with more than 1,000 BTC. Source:…..